Подключение |
   Republic of Bashkortostan EQUIPMENT – THE ECONOMIC JUSTIFICATION OF THE PRODUCTION OF THE TRUCK PROJECT OF V KUSHNARENKOVO
JSC Koinot Davletov M. I.
JSC Infel-Ufa Mustafin R. A.
JSC Kunitsa-Ufa Bikkulov A.M.
JSC Layt-2 Kravchenko Yu.P.
Ufa, 2013. Contents 1 . Contents of the project 3 1.1 . Project 3 purpose 1.2 . Project 3 description 1.3 . Participants of the project 4 2 . Marketing plan 5 2.1 . Russian market of trucks 5 3 . Description of production of the truck 11 6 . Financial plan 6.1 . Investments on the project 6.2 . Product cost
Appendices 12 1 . CONTENTS OF THE PROJECT 1.1 . Project purpose Introduction Creation of productions on assembly of trucks in the territory of Bashkiria. The organization of production of the new car will be carried out by cooperation of machine-building enterprises of the republic. 1.2 History and the main idea of the project (consideration of its main aspects and realization within the company) Historically it developed in RB territory that the main orientation of movement of goods and material resources was the West-East (railway Moscow-Vladivostok) on the way of development of Siberia. As a result many territories of RB developed as raw appendages of these streams. Therefore many territories in Bashkiria remained without a development impulse. Now as a result of disorder of the USSR, entry into the WTO, situation complication in the world, internal territories of RB need to reinterpret an economic situation and to plan development of productions with the international participation. It is necessary to create perspective economic projects. At the USSR in RB construction of the railroad Ufa-Neftekamsk giving an impulse of development for northern areas of the republic, in the direction the North-South was planned in the long term. But with disorder of the USSR these projects were for a while suspended. For expansion of plants of a machine-building cluster of RB in Kushnarenkovo it is necessary to begin planning жд Ufa-Neftekamsk and communications to it by northern part of the territory of the republic. RB is considered economically developed area in the Russian Federation, with the qualified, educated population. In recent years there were offers of large corporations on cooperation in various spheres of economy. On automotive industry, mechanical engineering there were offers of the German, Brazilian, Dutch, Japanese, Chinese firms on creation of coproductions in RB. Project description The project provides the organization of production of trucks in the following sequence: - the organization of assembly production of trucks for saturation of the market of the Republic of Bashkortostan and the neighboring regions; - organization of full-size production of cars, Planned suppliers of the main systems and components for modules of the truck are machine-building enterprises of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Bashkortostan. The planned supplier of the engine – the KamAZ concern. The schedule of localization of production provides increase in a share of the Russian suppliers from 10% in 2014 to 85% in 2016. Geographical position. Assembly productions it is planned to construct on a platform to the west of Kushnarenkovo's regional center on the area 10км ², near the projected new highway.
Coordinates of a platform of plant of trucks in the river of c. Kushnarenkovo of 530 hectares. Х У 1. 60998007,3 3314519,74 2. 6099162,28 3313430,025 3. 6099916,70 3314333,465 4. 6100848,08 3314901,608 5. 6100540,724 3316745,743 6. 609972,11 3316671,232 System of coordinates of 1963
The plan of the territory of assembly plant is submitted in fig. 1.
Fig. 1 Scheme of a platform.
1.2 . Participants of the project The main participants of the project are: -The government of the Republic of Bashkortostan – the organization of implementation of the project. Machine-building enterprises of the Republic of Bashkortostan – production of modules and tractor components. - JSC Koinot - JSC Infel-Ufa - JSC Kunitsa-Ufa - JSC Layt-2 - BGAU Cars, Tractors chair
Place of placement of automobile works - again organized production. Suppliers of systems and equipment The processing centers: JSC Sterlitamak Machine-tool Factory. Electrician, electronics: Federal State Unitary Enterprise Ufa Modular Production Association. Components of hydraulic system: Federal State Unitary Enterprise UAP Gidravlika, JSC Hydromash. Case products and transmission details: JSC Sterlitamak Machine-tool Factory, JSC MK Vityaz. Cowl, roof, back wings and other elements of a cabin: JSC NEFAZ. The fixture, the normalized elements: JSC BELZAN. Rubber – technical products: JSC UZEMIK.
2 . MARKETING PLAN Market of trucks of Russia In 9 months 2012 in Russia it was let out 149,1 thousand trucks. For this period the segment of production of trucks of foreign brands strengthened positions. Thus the most part of the enterprises for release of such cars showed positive dynamics. The share of cargo foreign cars in production structure grew by 2,55%, to 14,17%. Volumes of release of such cars significantly increased. The gain of operational performance, in comparison with the similar period of 2011, made 24%. In 9 months 2012 in Russia 21,2 thousand trucks of foreign brands were let out. Trucks of domestic brands still occupy a dominant position in production structure. At the same time, the share of such cars decreased by 2,55% that was accompanied by insignificant decrease in outputs. Release of such cars in 9 months 2012 decreased by 1,2%. At the most part of the enterprises for release of trucks of domestic brands negative dynamics was noted. From large producers the noticeable gain showed only KAMAZ (+19%). Dynamics of production of trucks in Russia, 9 months 2012, %
It already data of the analytical company Ernst & Young. According to the report of AEB, sale in 9 months 2012 in a segment of easy commercial cars with a full weight less than 6 t reached 135229 units. It is 9,25% more, than year before. The considerable part of brands increased sales. Noticeable negative dynamics was noted only on three brands – Fiat (-60,52%), Isuzu (-60,34%) and Hyundai (-16,98%). The most noticeable gain was shown by the Toyota and Renault brands which have increased sales practically in 3 and 4,2 times, respectively. For a segment of trucks with a full weight from 6 to 16 t the same rates of a gain, as well as for easy commercial cars (+11,11%) were characteristic. In 9 months 2012 in Russia 8531 such cars are sold. Practically all participants of the market increased sales volumes. "Scope width" for the present isn't reached 2008, but the confident movement to it is begun. To start some dry figures. In 2011. sales of easy commercial cars grew by 28%, in comparison with 2010. For 2011 174 487 units, unlike 136 435 cars realized in 2010 were sold. In a segment of average trucks of sale grew from 7 652 pieces in 2010 to 9 318 pieces in 2011, that is by 22%. The segment of heavy trucks showed the most impressive growth — 64%. Sales volumes grew from 17 973 units in 2010 to 29 410 units in 2011. Such figures were published by the Association of the European Business (AEB). As a whole the sales volume of new trucks grew by 35% in comparison with 2010 while the output increased by 30%. On the basis of it it is possible to draw a conclusion that growth of rates of import of new equipment from abroad in percentage terms surpasses growth rates of production on domestic automobile works and the assembly enterprises a little. However it is only a percentage ratio. In quantitative indices the domestic industry still in leaders. So, for example, in 2011 among all registered trucks of 59% made trucks of domestic brands. However, it is less, than in 2010 when the share of domestic commercial cars made 73%. About what it speaks? Actually decrease in a share of domestic trucks in total of the registered says that consumers had more money, and the most part of carriers is able to afford now import equipment. The percentage ratio of growth of the registered trucks in gradation on brand countries of origin is known also. So, for example, according to the data sounded by Russian Automotive Market Research (NAPI) agency on passed in the middle of February in St. Petersburg to the AutoInvest conference, the number of the registered German trucks grew from 5% to 9%, and Swedish — from 6% to 11%. Stability was kept by Japanese brands — 4% both in 2010, and in 2011. Registration of the Korean trucks grew by 1% — from 6% to 7%. Again prompt growth is shown by the Chinese cargo equipment. In comparison with 2010 the share of "Chinese" in the market grew five times — from 1% to 5%. In a quantitative sense it yet is a lot of and basic "weather" doesn't do, but the tendency speaks for itself. Coming back to a tendency of growth of registration of trucks of the German and Scandinavian brands, it should be noted one more moment. Increase in demand for expensive trucks a premium segment is caused not only increase in volume of current assets at consumers, but also activization of activity of the Russian assembly productions — Mercedes-Benz in Naberezhnye Chelny, Scania in St. Petersburg, Volvo Trucks and Renault Trucks in Kaluga. On February 28, 2012 the total press conference of Volvo within which results of activity in Russia cargo corporation division — Volvo Trucks were announced took place. So, sales of new Volvo trucks reached a point in 5 283 units. (1 994 units in 2010 + 165%). Sales on models were distributed as follows: Volvo FH — 2 525 units, Volvo FM — 2 615 units, Volvo FE — 58 units, Volvo FL — 85 units. The number of the imported second-hand Volvo trucks to Russia last year made 2 392 units (1 516 units in 2010 of +58%). At Volvo plant in Kaluga in 2011 only 3 748 units of cargo equipment of Volvo (1 236 units in 2010 of +203%) were made. Production on models: Volvo FH — 1 236 units, Volvo FM — 2 500 units, Volvo FE — 10 units, Volvo FL — 2 units. Thus, in structure of sales of new Volvos in left, as well as last year, the trucks made at Volvo plant in Kaluga (3 748 units against 1 535 units created at Volvo plants in Ghent and the Gothenburg prevailed. In 2010 — 1 236 units from Kaluga against 758 units of Volvo from Ghent and the Gothenburg). It is absolutely unambiguous that the share of foreign brands in the total amount of the trucks made in Russia will grow in the future further. Besides already working platforms in Naberezhnye Chelny, St. Petersburg and Kaluga just about there will begin work assembly production MAN, also as well as Scania placed in St. Petersburg. It is expected that this production will start working already in the first half of 2012. Plans of the German concern — 6 thousand assembled trucks a year only in Russia. However, Germans plan to come to this level years through three — not earlier. It is curious that on the same outputs in Russia counts and … the Dutch DAF! The "smallest" representative of a galaxy of the "big" seven raises at volumes of grandees. However while it only dreams of Dutches. They also declared plans of the organization of assembly in Russia. However, no reality while is present. While "negotiations with businessmen from different Russian regions" are carried on. And what more distant prospect? There are expert estimates and in this respect. According to forecasts of Ernst & Young of sale of trucks in Russia in 2012-2015 will grow on the average for 14% or 20 000 units annually. Strategy of development of automotive industry of the Russian Federation assumes that by 2020 of sale of trucks, according to the basic scenario, will reach 186 000 units. This indicator is lower than that predicts Ernst & Young, but all the same impresses. So, the quantitative growth of sales at anybody doesn't raise doubts. However it is necessary to consider that changes in structure of the trucks sold in the future are inevitable. Russia joined WTO, so, duties on import equipment will be lowered. It, quite possibly, will lead to some decline in demand for production of domestic producers and significant increase in import of trucks. However against the general bright prospects of growth of total amounts of the market for sale of the production and to primordial domestic automobile works, and the assembly enterprises it isn't necessary to worry. Distinctly modifications in structure of realized trucks on their appointment appear also. The share of special vehicles will steadily grow at the expense of activity activization, including on work with import chassis, the Russian auto body repair men whom on today's already is more than 1 500, and at the expense of installation of import superstructures in the territory of the Russian Federation with assignment to final products of the Russian VIN code. Renault Doubled sales in comparison with 2010 and came to pre-crisis level. In 2011 in the territory of Russia 1 348 units of cargo equipment of Renault were sold, at plant in Kaluga 1 297 trucks were made. The leader of sales "Renault the Premium of Rues" — the comfortable tractor with a high cabin. The market of tractors was restored quicker, than the market of dump trucks. Big growth of sales as in the market of tractors, and construction trucks, improvement of quality of a dealer network is planned better to satisfy inquiries of clients. Scania I became record on several indicators for Scania in Russia 2011. The company sold 6 792 pieces that allowed Russia to take the 2nd place in the world on the volume of shipments among all markets Scania, secondly, became the best on sales volume of service and spare parts 2011. In spite of the fact that the firm is engaged in active sale of industrial and sea Scania engines only the second year, entered into ten the largest markets Scania in the world, having shipped 102 units last year. Besides, in 2011 of Scania became one of suppliers of the Sochi-2014 project in the category "Buses". In total in 2011 6792 trucks, 38 buses and 102 Scania engines were shipped to clients. The main share of sales fell on the Central, Volga and North Western regions of Russia. One of the most popular models of 2011 can call a series of Scania Griffin tractors (specially developed for operation in Russia). Besides, the complete set of all line of Scania Griffin of 2011 was improved. Among the new directions heavy dump trucks for mining industry which are intended for work in pits, in places of mountain development use special attention, and are characterized by the increased loading capacity. Intensively develops the directions of special equipment: the garbage trucks, the combined road cars, the fire equipment, special cars for the airports. "Mercedes Benz of Traks East" In 2011. "Mercedes Benz of Traks the East" sold the greatest number of Mercedes-Benz trucks ever realized in Russia: 2 815 units. For the first time results of sales of Mercedes-Benz trucks in Russia entered in top-10 results of sales of Mercedes-Benz trucks worldwide. Most of all sales traditionally it was the share of the Central Russia — Moscow, St. Petersburg, and also Tatarstan. However, and in other regions (Siberia, the Far East), thanks to dealers, sales grow. Dvukhosny truck tractors for regional transportations of Axor (for example used special popularity, 1835 and 1840 LS) and trekhosny dump trucks on the basis of Actros (for example, 3336 K, 3341 K) for various use, and also still in a segment of the main trucks Actros1841 LS was successful. For last year a number of interesting projects took place: dump trucks, orders in a segment лесовозовов, garbage trucks, cars for municipal services — for the winter and summer maintenance of roads, were cooperation examples on creation of special equipment for oil and gas branch and even television. For last year the company made breakthrough. The main priorities are development of a dealer network and a network of service stations over all country, accumulation of rates of production, and also development of the new directions — advance on the Russian market of special equipment of Mercedes-Benz Unimog and Zetros. In the come year it is planned to reach result in 4 500 units of cargo equipment. 3 . Description of production of the truck. Proceeding from the existing market, the truck price on an initial stage of assembly will be 1950000руб.
4 . Cost of construction of floor spaces 400000м ² x 30000 rub/m ² = 12 billion rubles conveyor, auxiliary productions, communications, design 5 . Installation of the equipment of the conveyor 40 billion rubles. • 12 billion rubles - on purchase of spare parts, • 1 billion rubles - on communication Total: 65 billion rubles (2,17 billion dale) 6 . FINANCIAL PLAN 6.1 . Investments on the project. Finance on the project needs to be attracted from investment funds of Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia.
6.2 . Annual sales volume. Initial release in volume of 40000 trucks/year is planned. The sales volume is planned to 80 billion rub/year
7 . Number of employees of plant. The following number is planned on assembly production: 200 trucks/day x 4 people = 800 people.
8 . Patch. Tax assignments. 1 . 800 people x 40000 rub/month = 32 million rub/month (384 million rub/year) 2 . 32 million rub/month x 34% = 10,88 million/month (130,56 million rub/year). 3 . Sick-lists, payment of study, courses, social actions of plant: 32 million rub/month x 20% = 6,4 million rub/month (76,8mln.rub/year).
9 . The VAT from each truck 1,95млн.руб x 18% = 0,351 million rub 10 . Truck cost. 1,95 million rub – 0,351млн.руб = 1,599 million rubles. 11 . Prime cost of the truck: 1,599 million rub x 60% = 0,9594 million rub
Simple payback period, years 4,3 The discounted payback period, years 5,2 Internal standard of profitability (IRR) of 22,3%
Appendix 1 Appendix 2
巴什科爾托斯坦共和國 ·12億盧布。 - 購買的備件， ·1億盧布。 - 通訊 總計：65十億盧布。 （2.17十億美元） बश्कोर्तोस्तान के गणराज्य |
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